Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Whites Electoral Influence Wanning?

In a year that witnessed record turnout amongst voters of all backgrounds, one of the most striking yet under reported story lines is how Obama managed to crush McCain (365 to 173 in the electoral college), but substantially lose the white vote by a count of 43 to 55 (http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1). He did this by running up huge margins with ethnic minority groups, but since when did such a strategy lead to certain victory for the presidency?

In every other US presidential race going back to 1980, the victor for the White House also won a substantial amount of the white vote, but never lost it by more than 2 points. Bush won 58 and 54 percent of the white vote in 2004 and 2000 respectively. Clinton only loss the white vote by 2 points in tough three way races in 1996 and 1992. Bush Sr. won the white vote by 20 points in 1988. Reagan won by 32 and 20 points in 1984 and 1980 respectively.

The 2008 race could've been more than the first time an African American won the White House. It could also be the first flash point in what one futurist calls America's cultural singularity, which is a theory that due to the rapid growth amongst racial ethnic groups American society will change so fast that in 20 or 30 years it will be completely unrecognizable to today's society.

If this is the case, then we better get used to more elections of all kinds where more ethnic minorities and women win. Some believe that Obama's victory is an anomaly, I believe that if demographics continue to rapidly change and electoral participation remains steady, then elected minority and women presidents may soon become standard practice.

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